西北地区人口流动决策的影响因素研究——基于新空间经济学视角

伴随着经济地理格局的空间演变,我国人口迁移流动更趋活跃。文章在梳理已有研究基础上,首先基于新空间经济学理论构建了多区域人口区位选择模型,揭示了人口空间流动的影响机制;然后以西北地区为例,选取2017年CMDS微观个体数据和城市层面特征数据匹配,通过构建Logistic模型检验人口流动决策的影响因素及其内在机理。研究发现:从西北地区整体来看,区域地方品质、经济发展水平、市场潜能、收入水平是影响人口域外流出的主要因素,而提高第二产业比重及工业化水平有助于抑制人口域外流出;从西部地区分省区来看其影响因素具有区域异质性,宁夏人口域内外流动对于地方品质敏感度最大,接近陕西的16.47倍、甘肃的2.72倍,产业结构对宁夏地区人口流动的影响也很大,而收入水平对陕西人口域内外流动具有显著影响;从流动人口受教育水平看其影响因素亦具有人力资本异质性,大专及以上流动人口对于地方品质的敏感度最大,约是初中及以下流动人口的1.90倍、高中与中专流动人口的1.39倍;地方品质是影响未来人口流动的决定性因素。研究结论可为优化西北地区人口资源空间配置,推进西部大开发形成新格局提供有益参考。

Research on the Influencing Factors of Population Flow Decision in Northwest Region:Based on New Spatial Economics

With the spatial evolution of economic and geographical pattern,China’s population migration was becom?ing more active.On the basis of combing the existing research and the theory of new spatial economics,this research firstly constructed a multi-regional population location selection model to reveal the influence mechanism of population spatial flow.Then,taking Northwest China as an example,this research selected the 2017 CMDS micro-individual data and urban level characteristic data,and constructed a logistic model to test the influencing factors and internal mecha?nism of population mobility decision-making.This research found that from the overall perspective of Northwest China,regional quality,economic development level,market potential and income level were the main factors affecting the ex?traterritorial outflow of population,and increasing the proportion of secondary industry and industrialization level would help to curb the extraterritorial outflow of population.In terms of the provinces and regions in the western region,its in?fluencing factors had regional heterogeneity.The intra-regional and extra-regional migration of population in Ningxia had the greatest sensitivity to local quality,which was close to 16.47 times that of Shaanxi and 2.72 times that of Gansu.The industrial structure had a great impact on the intra-regional and extra-regional migration of population in Ningxia,and the income level had a significant impact on the intra-regional and extra-regional migration of population in Shaanxi.In terms of the education level of the floating population,the influencing factors were different due to human capital.The floating population of junior college and above had the greatest sensitivity to local quality,about 1.90 times that of junior middle school and below,and 1.39 times that of senior high school and technical secondary school.In par?ticular,local quality was the decisive factor affecting future population mobility.The research conclusion could provide valuable reference for optimizing the spatial allocation of population resources in Northwest China and advancing forma?tion of a new pattern in the western development.