中国猪肉市场总供给波动及影响因素的实证分析

近期我国猪肉价格的剧烈波动,引起了社会各界的广泛关注。采用Nerlove供给模型分析了生猪供给的价格预期和成本调整周期,结合自回归分布滞后—误差修正（ARDL-ECM）模型对猪肉总体供给的影响因素进行了实证分析。结果表明,猪肉价格的长期供给弹性小于短期供给弹性,而在诸多影响因素中,饲料价格对猪肉供给的短期影响最大。由此认为,由于价格预期对猪肉供给的影响存在着严重的滞后,国家宜采用逆周期补贴政策对生猪的生产进行宏观调控。

An Empirical Analysis on the Volatility of Aggregate Pork Supply and its Influencing Factors

The recent volatility in the price of pork in China has aroused wide attention from all sectors of society.In this paper,we analyze the price expectations and the cost of adjustment cycle of the pig supply by Nerlove supply model,and conduct an empirical analysis on influencing factors of the supply of pork in the overall with autoregressive distributed lag-Error Correction（ARDL-ECM） model.The results show that the long-term supply elasticity of the price of pork is less than the short-term.And in many affecting factors,the feed prices have the greatest impact on pork supply in the short term.This paper argues that,because of the serious lag of prices expectation＇s influence on the supply of pork,China should adopt counter-cyclical payments policy on macro-control of pig production.