| 基于经济安全的粮食供给安全程度分析 |
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| 引用本文： | 顾海兵,王鑫琦.基于经济安全的粮食供给安全程度分析[J].徐州工程学院学报（社会科学版）,2014(3):42-46. |
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| 作者姓名： | 顾海兵 王鑫琦 |
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| 作者单位： | [1]中国人民大学经济学院,北京100872 [2]中证资本市场发展监测中心有限责任公司市场管理部,北京100033 |
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| 基金项目： | 广义虚拟经济研究专项资助项目“广义虚拟经济与国家经济安全”[GX2010-1017（Y）] |
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| 摘 要： | 粮食供给安全对国家经济安全有着重要的影响。文章在梳理粮食供给安全相关概念与评价指标的基础上，划分粮食供给安全的区间，并就2013年中国粮食供给安全状况作了结构性预测与情景分析。结果表明只有当减产幅度达到25％时，粮食供给才会出现无法避免的危机。
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| 关 键 词： | 粮食供给安全 国家经济安全 情景分析 |
Analysis of Safety Level of Food Supply Based on Economic Security |
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| GU Hai-bing,WANG Xin-qi.Analysis of Safety Level of Food Supply Based on Economic Security[J].Journal of xuzhou Institute of Technology(Social Sciences Edition),2014(3):42-46. |
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| Authors: | GU Hai-bing WANG Xin-qi |
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| Institution: | 1. School of Economics, Renmin University of China, Beijing 100872, China; 2 Market Management Department of Chinese Capital Market Development and Monitoring Center Co. Ltd. , Beijing 100033, China) |
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| Abstract: | The security of food supply has important influence on national economic security. The paper first analyzed some of the food-supply-security-related concepts and assessment indexes, and then determined the interval of food supply security, and then made structural and scenario prediction based on the food supply security condition of 2013. The results show that only when crop failure reaches 25% can a crisis be inevitable. |
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| Keywords: | food supply security national economic security scenario analysis |
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