基于相关系数的钢材需求量组合预测

近年来我国钢材消费量和产量大幅提升,在1997～2006年的10年里分别增长了308%和367%,虽然同期内国内铁矿石产量也增加了119%,但仍无法满足钢铁工业的需求,对外依存度从28.5%提升到51.8%。在对钢材以及铁矿石消费量的预测实践中,由于不同的预测方法能够提供不同的有用信息,其预测精度往往也存在差异,为了分散预测的风险,文章采用基于相关系数的组合预测方法对我国未来的成品钢材需求量进行预测,并对预测结果进行了深入分析。结果表明,基于相关系数的组合预测模型在预测准确性和适应性方面均能得到一定改善,能很好地对钢材需求量进行科学、有效的预测。

Combined Forecasting Models of Steel Demand Based on Correlation Coefficients

During the period 1997-2006,the soaring consumption and production of steel have made native iron ore more insufficient,and also gave rise to the net import dependence of iron ore,from 28.5%to 51.8%.As different methods diverse in providing information and forecast precision,the combined forecasting model is employed in this paper to forecast steel consumption in China over the period 2007-2020.The result suggests that the model put forward in this paper may be better than the other separate ones in terms o...