20世纪60年代美中央情报局对中苏关系的评估--对美国情报委员会最新解密档案的分析

美国最新解密的中央情报局20世纪60年代初、中和末期撰写的中苏关系评估报告,通过不同层面,较客观地分析了此阶段中苏关系的变化情况,较为准确地判断和预测了中苏关系的走向.但是,不同体制国家文化背景上的巨大差异,对社会主义国家决策程序必要了解的不足,重视苏联动向的习惯,以及文革造成的中国国内局势的动乱,使得报告作者的理性考量也存在不少偏差,对中国方面的某些迹象缺乏敏感.

The US CIA's Appraisal and Calculation of Sino- Soviet Relations in the 1960s

The recently declassified United States Central Intelligence Agency estimate reports on Sino-Soviet relations in the 1960s objectively analyzed the changes of Sino-Soviet relations during the period, and accurately to a certain extent calculated the future developments of that relationship. However, because of the big gap of cultural background between the two countries with different systems, the lacking of necessary knowledge about the policy-making process in communist countries, the habitual emphasis on the movements of the Soviet Union, and the internal chaos caused by the Cultural Revolution in China, the creators of these reports also committed misconception, and lacked a necessary sensitivity to some signs on the Chinese side.