Fire Risks in Oil Refineries: Economic Analysis of Camera Monitoring

A probabilistic method is presented to evaluate the economic value of fire monitoring by closed circuit TV camera in petroleum refineries. The proposed model is restricted to the analysis of risk reduction in an area where fires can be caused either by pump failure or by failure of valves and lines. The benefits come from reducing the time during which the fire grows undetected. Fire growth and expected values of losses are analyzed by a Markov model that includes five phases: (1) active undetected growth, (2) detection, (3) fire growth at the beginning of the firemen's intervention, (4) fire control, and (5) fire extinction. The results (e.g., the expected net present value of the investment) show that the proposed monitoring investment is attractive for an illustrative example.