Lower posterior death probabilities from a quick medical response in road traffic accidents |
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Authors: | Antonio SM Arroyo Antonio García-Ferrer Aránzazu de Juan Fernández Rocío Sánchez-Mangas |
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Institution: | Departamento de Economía Cuantitativa , Universidad Autónoma de Madrid (UAM) , Avda. Francisco Tom ás y Valiente 5, 28049 , Madrid , Spain |
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Abstract: | Introduction: We use data from Spain on roads and motorways traffic accidents in May 2004 to quantify the statistical association between quick medical response time and mortality rate. Method: Probit and logit parameters are estimated by a Bayesian method in which samples from the posterior densities are obtained through an MCMC simulation scheme. We provide posterior credible intervals and posterior partial effects of a quick medical response at several time levels over which we express our prior beliefs. Results: A reduction of 5 min, from a 25-min response-time level, is associated with lower posterior probabilities of death in roads and motorways accidents of 24% and 30%, respectively. |
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Keywords: | death probability traffic accidents binary dependent variable models Bayesian inference |
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