“路径依赖”:对农村改革的思考

回顾农村２０年的制度变迁及改革创造的巨大绩效,以家庭联产承包制、乡镇企业和村民自治为主线,可以寻见改革存在路径,即：扩大农民自主权。从经济社会系统的“复杂性”理论角度看,“扩大自主权”这一基层进化的经验经由系统的作用形成了自下而上的组织创新,有助于组织群体的系统转换具有路径依赖性,并以路径效应──政府与农民的互动（自下而上的自发创造与自上而下的自觉选择的互动发展）──拓展积聚了由农民个体自主权扩增而导致的农村社会整体发展效应。现实地看,这一路径必将成为实现农村、农业、农民“三农”现代化的最动态的增效源泉。

Route dependence-random thoughts on rural reform in China

The route followed by.the present-day rural reform is the augmentation of peasants' autonomy. Viewed from the theoretical angle of the "complexity" of the socioeconomic system, the experience of this augmenation of autonomy evolved from the grass roots and, through the action of system, forms an organizational creation from the bottom up. It can be seen that there exists route dependence, Also, relying upon the route effect, that is, the interdynamic between the peasants and the government, China has expanded the effects of social development as a whole though the augmentation of autonomy. From a practical view of point, this route is sure to become the dynamic of benefit-promising source for the realization of the modernization of China's rural areas, agricultrue and peasants.