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Bayesian inference with misspecified models
Authors:Stephen G. Walker
Affiliation:Department of Mathematics & Division of Statistics and Scientific Computation, University of Texas, Austin, USA
Abstract:
This article reviews Bayesian inference from the perspective that the designated model is misspecified. This misspecification has implications in interpretation of objects, such as the prior distribution, which has been the cause of recent questioning of the appropriateness of Bayesian inference in this scenario. The main focus of this article is to establish the suitability of applying the Bayes update to a misspecified model, and relies on representation theorems for sequences of symmetric distributions; the identification of parameter values of interest; and the construction of sequences of distributions which act as the guesses as to where the next observation is coming from. A conclusion is that a clear identification of the fundamental starting point for the Bayesian is described.
Keywords:Bayesian asymptotics   Exchangeable   Independent and identically distributed   Learning model   Misspecified model   Mixture of Dirichlet process model   Regression model   Time series model
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