Adaptive modeling of the human-environment relationship applied to estimation of the population carrying capacity in an earthquake zone |
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Authors: | Jin-Feng Wang Yi-Lan Liao Jiao-Jiao Wang Jie Fan Tian Chen Xiao-Lu Gao Zhi-Dong Cao Mao-Gui Hu Yong Ge Xiao-Ying Zheng |
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Institution: | 1. State Key Laboratory of Resources and Environmental Information System, Institute of Geographic Science and Nature Resources Research, Chinese Academy of Sciences. A11, Datun Road, 100101, Beijing, People’s Republic of China 2. Institute of Population Science, Peking University, 100187, Beijing, China
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Abstract: | Natural catastrophes such as earthquakes can, in addition to causing loss of life, disrupt the urbanization process through the need for forced population redistribution and the modification of resource and environmental carrying capacity. The population carrying capacity (PCC) of an altered environment following an earthquake is a crucial determinant in the relocation of displaced persons. We use data adaptive methods to model the correlation between the physical environment and human population density in estimating PCC in areas affected by the 2008 Wenchuan earthquake. Comparing actual population distributions with ideal population distributions allows for the identification of villages where population exceeds PCC, or conversely, areas where the environment can support a higher population. Such a comparison can provide the basis for a relocation plan, a critical element of post-catastrophe policy-making. |
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