油茶产业经营风险评价研究

从经营环境、经营技术、市场行为3个层面分析我国油茶产业面临的风险；然后在建立风险评价指标体系基础上结合层次分析法与模糊综合评判法确定各评价层次风险等级。本次研究进行了实地调研，被调查者中认为油茶产业经营风险程度一般的有40．3％，风险较大的有30．1％，23％认为存在严重风险，6．6％认为有灾难性风险。从单因素风险评价看，市场价格风险等级最大，原料林种植技术风险等级最小。

Business Risk of Camellia oleifera Abel Industry

This paper analyzes business risks faced by Camellia oleifera Abel industry from three levels, i.e. the business environment, the business technology and the market behaviors. Based on index system of risk appraisal, the risk grade is determined combining with analytic hierarchy process(AHP) and fuzzy comprehensive evaluation method. Results show that 40.3% respondents think that management risk of camellia oleifera abel industry is general, 30.1% think that higher risk exists, 23% believe that risk is serious, and 6.6% think that there is a catastrophic risk in the industry. From the angle of single-factor risk appraisal, the level of market price risk is the highest, while material planting techniques risk is the lowest.