张掖市土地资源人口承载力系统动力学模拟预测——兼论干旱区土地生产关系调整

预测干旱区土地资源的生产能力能满足多少人口食物需求的问题，是分析干旱区人地关系是否和谐的首要问题。从农作物供需差的角度建立景统动力学仿真模型，预测分析干旱区的土地资源人口承载力。可以看出内陆干旱区张掖市未来20年里人口将日趋超过土地资源人口承载力。要促进人地关系和谐、提高人口承载力就必须调整生产关系。

Land Resource Population Carrying Capacity System Dynamics Simulation and Prediction in Zhangye -on Land Product Relationship Adjustment in Drought Regions

Predicting whether the product capacity of land in drought regions can satisfy the need of food of people is the priority of analyzing whether the relationship between land and people is harmonious.Predicting and analyzing the population carrying capacity of land resource in drought region through establishing system dynamic simulation model from the perspective of the gap between supply and demand of agricultural products indicates that the population of Zhangye inland drought region will exceed the popula...