基于BP神经网络模型的中国乳业发展规模预测

文章简要分析了BP神经网络的结构和学习过程，然后以1978—2009年的中国乳业规模发展数据为基础，以奶牛年末存栏数（千头）、奶牛养殖业产值、畜牧业总产值等三个变量作为输入、中国奶牛产量作为输出，采用MATLAB2009a中的BP神经网络工具箱构建了基于BP神经网络的中国乳业发展规模预测模型。研究结果表明：未来十年中国原奶产量将大幅度增长，乳业规模将迅速扩大，原料奶生产无组织管理已不适应乳业经济的迅猛发展，“十二五”期间必须转变原料奶总量的增长方式。研究成果对于奶牛养殖业管理部门、养殖业者科学合理地规划奶牛养殖规模具有重要的参考价值。

The Prediction of Chinese Dairy Industry Development Scale Basing the BP Neural Network

This article briefly analyzes BP Neural Network＇ s structure and its learning process, and then takes the quality of dairy herds at the end of the year, the value of dairy cow industry and total value of livestock industry as three input variables, dairy cow milk output in China as output, with the data of Chinese Dairy Industry scale from 1978 to 2009 as the base;it creates a model to predict Chinese dairy industry development scale upon BP Neural Network with the using of BP Neural Network tool box form MATLAB2009a. The research result shows that in the following 10 years Chinese raw milk output will increase heavily and dairy industry scale will expand rapidly, which requires more than non -organized raw milk production management. During ＂the 12th 5 -year -plan＂period, the increasing way of raw milk production must be changed. The result is of important reference for cow farming management department and cow farmers to plan and control cow farming scale.