我国房地产市场在货币政策传导机制中的作用——基于住房市场内生化的IS-LM扩展模型

房地产市场是影响我国货币政策传导效果的重要因素,但国内对此问题的研究还很缺乏,基于此,构建了一个住房市场内生化的IS-LM扩展模型。基于这个模型,对1999年1月—2010年12月的数据进行了实证检验,证实了住房市场在货币政策传导机制中的作用的存在性。在第一阶段,货币量通过流动性效应和资产组合效应影响住房市场,信贷则通过抵换效应影响房地产市场。长期内,货币和信贷具有促进作用;短期内,紧缩信贷则具有一定的抑制作用。在第二阶段,房地产市场通过财富效应或流动性效应影响消费,同时对投资具有拉动作用。通过对货币需求的替代效应、财富效应和资产组合效应,房地产市场对货币市场具有反馈作用。

The Role of Housing Market in the Monetary Transmission Mechanism:Based on an Augmented IS-LM Model Incorporating Endogenous Housing Market

By establishing an augmented IS-LM model which based on a partial equilibrium model embodying the housing market and using the data covering the sample 1999:1-2010:12,this paper verifies the existence and importance of housing market in the monetary transmission mechanism.In the first stage,monetary policy indicated by money influences the housing market via liquidity effect or portfolio effect;and the loan influences the housing market via substitute effect.In the long run,money and loan play important role,and in the short run,the contractionary loan policy does.In the second stage,the housing market influences the consumption through the wealth and liquidity effects. Meanwhile, the housing market promotes the investment. Moreover, the housing market imposes the feedback effects on the monetary market through substitute、wealth or portfolio effects.