Is there a future for social forecasting? |
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Authors: | Holroyd P |
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Affiliation: | Bradford Group for Forecasting and Policy Alternatives, USA |
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Abstract: | This paper examines the recent rise of, and interest in social forecasting. It reviews the various ways in which social forecasts are attempted: particularly through the techniques of modelling which have been taken from, and developed beyond the models used by the basic science and technologies. It then describes the shifts in thinking emerging from different beliefs and attitudes which seem to portend a new ideology in our global society. Finally the paper briefly addresses the crucial issue known as the ‘World Problematique’ and evaluates the role that social forecasting has to play in devising possible solutions, particularly from the viewpoint of industry, trade and commerce. |
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