| 中国均衡货币供给与货币缺口：1978—2004 |
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| 引用本文： | 李建军.中国均衡货币供给与货币缺口：1978—2004[J].华北电力大学学报(社会科学版),2006(3):20-25,48. |
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| 作者姓名： | 李建军 |
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| 作者单位： | 中央财经大学,金融学院,北京,100081 |
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| 基金项目： | 教育部科技攻关项目
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中国博士后科学基金 |
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| 摘 要： | 货币缺口是现实货币供给与均衡货币供给之间的差异程度,无论从长期还是短期角度看,它对中央银行制定和实施货币政策、进行宏观调控、保持汇率稳定,都具有重要参照意义.本文采用均衡产出决定法、周期趋势消除法和货币供给增长率推算法分别测算1978-2004年我国的货币缺口,结果表明:(1)在过去的27年中,货币缺口变化呈现出周期性特征;(2)1994年以后货币缺口的波动幅度变窄,表明货币政策调控的效果逐步提高;(3)货币缺口对经济周期的峰值具有预警功能.
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| 关 键 词： | 均衡货币供给 货币缺口 均衡产出决定法 周期趋势消除法 增长率推算法 |
| 文章编号： | 1008-2603(2006)03-0020-07 |
| 修稿时间： | 2006年6月28日 |
Equilibrium of Money Supply and Money Gap in China: from 1978 to 2004 |
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| LI Jian-jun.Equilibrium of Money Supply and Money Gap in China: from 1978 to 2004[J].Journal of North China Electric Power University(Social Sciences),2006(3):20-25,48. |
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| Authors: | LI Jian-jun |
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| Abstract: | Money gap is the disparity between nominal volume of money supply and equilibrium of money supply,which is meaningful for the central bank to make decision and carry out monetary policy in macroeconomic regulation and stability of exchange rate.After using three methods of estimating equilibrium of money supply,we can draw these conclusions:(1)The money gap presented business cycle character from 1978 to 2004.(2)From 1994,the fluctuated extent of money gap decreased,which means the efficiency of monetary policy raised steadily.(3)The money gap has the forecast function of extreme in business cycle. |
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| Keywords: | equilibrium of money supply money gap equilibrium of output decision method cycle de-trending method growth rate prediction method |
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