空中交通管理系统安全评价研究

针对以往空中交通管理系统安全评价的不全面性,提出要从＂隐性＂和＂显性＂层面对空中交通管理系统的安全状况进行准确评估。在＂隐性＂层面以空管系统的人、设备、环境和管理为基本因素,建立空中交通管理＂隐性＂层面评价指标体系,并在空管安全评价中首次利用了Kaufm ann和Gupta模糊德尔菲法求取指标的隶属度,避免了利用专家打分的模糊性和不准确性,为＂隐性＂层面准确评估提供了坚实的基础;在＂显性＂层面提出了集值统计模型,并利用落影函数计算出指标的威胁度。最终结合实例对中国空管系统的安全状况进行了评价。实证分析表明,该方法能较为准确地反应中国空管系统的安全状况,具有较好的参考价值。

Research on the Safety Evaluation of Air Traffic Control Management System

In light of the incomplete previous air traffic control system, an accurate evaluation is made from implicit and explicit aspects on the safety status of the air traffic control system. Implicit aspects include such basic elements as humans, facilities, environment and management of the air traffic control system, on which the index system is established. Kaufmann and Gupta’s fuzzy durfee is adopted for the first time to get the relative degree of the index system membership, avoiding fuzziness and inaccuracy of the expert estimation, which laid a solid foundation for evaluation on implicit aspects. Set-valued statistics is offered on explicit aspects to evaluate the threat degree of the index. Finally, examples are provided to evaluate the safety status of the air traffic control system. Empirical studies indicate the method is a valuable reference which can reflect the exact safety status of the air traffic control system.