物流产业与区域经济增长的互动性——以江苏省为例

通过建立一个物流产业发展趋势模型,对1978~2004年间江苏省物流产业发展和国民经济增长之间关系进行了实证检验。研究结果发现物流产业和GDP两者间存在长期协整关系;江苏省物流能力H随时间t变化以两次多项式形式增长。江苏省GDP与物流能力H呈两次多项式关系。物流能力与GDP之间存在双向因果关系,而且物流产业的发展对GDP增长起着相当重要的作用。

Interaction Between Logistical Industry and Regional Economic Increase

By setting up a model of development trends of the logistical industry,the paper demonstrates the relationship between the logistical industry in Jiangsu Province and the national economy from 1978 to 2004.The result shows that there is the cooperation and integration between the logistical industry and GDP.The logistical capacity H increases with the change of time T in the form of two-polynomial and there is also two-polynomial between GDP in Jiangsu Province and the capacity of logistics H.There is interactactive causal relationship between the capacity of logistics and GDP and the development of logistical industry plays an important role in the increase of GDP.