城镇住房保障规模影响因素的相关分析研究

城镇住房保障规模既受住房保障需要范围的影响,又受政府供给能力的约束.城镇住房保障规模的主要影响因素体现在如下几个方面:人均财政收入、人均可支配收入、恩格尔系数、人均住房消费支出、商品房市场价格、居民人均使用面积、住房自有率、城市化率、住宅用地年供应量和房地产开发投资量等,将这些影响因素分别与住房保障量或应受保障家庭比例之间做实证相关分析或理想值的模拟分析,可得到部分有意义的结果.其政策含义是,根据经济社会发展的阶段性水平,政府可对上述指标作政策性的适度调控,使城镇保障型住房的供应量努力保持供需的动态平衡.

A Correlation Study of Factors Influencing Urban Housing-based Social Security

The scale of urban housing-based social security is affected by the demand of guaranteed housing on the one hand and government capacity to provide housing on the other. After a standard theoretical analysis, interviews with specialists in the field and a questionnaire survey, this paper identifies and chooses the following items as the key factors related to the scale of urban housing-based social security. They include: per capita fiscal earning, per capita annual family disposable income, Engel coefficient, per capita annual expenditures on housing, marketing price of commercial housing, per capita living space, percentage of private housing, ratio of urbanization, annual supply of residential land and quantity of investment on real estate development. A correlation and simulated ideal value analysis is then conducted on the relations between these factors and the quantity of guaranteed housing or the percentage of families which are entitled to housing-based social security. The results of the analysis indicate: (1) The correlation analysis of the quantity of guaranteed housing in Zhejiang Province from 1995 to 2003 shows that since the guaranteed housing plan was implemented between 1995 and 2003, no scientific estimation was applied to the total housing supply, and that stipulation and execution of the plan was mostly performed arbitrarily. That was the case even after a gradual increase of affordable housing supply and government-subsidized rental system was implemented. Other provinces in China have similar problems. (2) By a simulated correlation analysis of the percentage of family housing-based social security of Zhejiang Province in two periods, 1994-2003 and 1994-2011, the study shows that from 1994 to 2003, housing-based social security in Zhejiang was in a phase of taking shape and rapid development. The factors related to its scale and percentage increased synchronically. When the duration of the correlation analysis is further extended to 2011, housing-based social security in Zhejiang will get into a phase of balanced development. There appears to be marked changes, reflecting a structural shift of the economic and social development of Zhejiang Province from a transitional type to an oval-shaped type. This study suggests that the government should adopt appropriate policies to regulate the factors mentioned above in an endeavor to achieve a dynamic balance between the supply and demand of urban guaranteed housing.