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Presidential Popularity and Presidential Vote |
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| Authors: | LEWIS-BECK, MICHAEL S. RICE, TOM W. |
| Affiliation: | Michael S. Lewis-Beck is a Professor in the Department of Political Science, University of Iowa Tom W. Rice is a graduate student in the Department of Political Science, University of Iowa |
| Abstract: | The president's popularity rating is highly predictive of hisvote share in a reelection bid, especially when popularity isassessed in June of that year. This June popularity-vote modelpredicts about as well as the Gallup final preelection poll,and a 50 percent approval rating will ensure reelection. |
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