基于Nerlove模型的中国鸡蛋供给反应实证分析

基于Nerlove模型,利用动态面板GMM方法对鸡蛋供给反应进行了研究。结果表明:中国鸡蛋供给的短期和长期价格均缺乏弹性,养殖户对鸡蛋价格变化反应迟钝;养殖户生产决策存在约1.86年的时滞期,并且疫情对鸡蛋产量具有显著的负作用;规模化养殖相对于非规模化养殖,短期和长期价格供给弹性都要大的多,并且加大生产投入能带来更多的产量增长,但是规模化养殖和非规模化养殖在生产决策时滞上相差不大,并且规模化养殖疫情冲击的负向作用要大于非规模化养殖。

An Analysis on the Supply Response of Eggs in China：an Empirical Investigation based on the Nerlove Model

This paper empirically studies the supply response of eggs in china with the Nerlove model by using dynamic panel GMM way .It is concluded that the short-term and long-term price elasticity of egg supply in china are lack of flexibility ,so farmers are slow in response to egg price signal .Meanwhile , there is a lag period of about 1 .86 years of farmers＆#39;production decisions ,and the avian influenza ,the representative of epidemic ,has a remarkable negative effect on egg production .Besides ,compared with non-scale farming ,the large-scale farming has bigger short-term and long-term price elasticity ,and also can bring more output growth by increasing more production inputs .However ,there are no significant differences between large-scale farming and non-scale farming on production decision ,and the epidemic has a bigger negative effect on large-scale farming than non-scale farming .