城镇化影响农村居民消费的地区差异及门槛效应?

推进城镇化是增加我国农村消费需求，扩大内需的重要突破口。采用2002—2012年我国省际面板数据考察城镇化、农村人口结构、消费结构升级等因素对农村居民消费的影响，结果表明：城镇化对农村居民消费增长具有显著的促进作用，且存在地区差异，东部地区城镇化对农村居民消费增长的作用大于西部地区；城镇化对我国农村居民消费的影响存在显著的单一门槛效应，门槛估计值为0．589，在城镇化水平高（大于0．589）的地区，城镇化对农村居民消费的促进作用更大，但目前我国大部分省区的城镇化水平还未达到门槛值。应进一步加快我国城镇化进程，尤其是中西部次发达地区的城镇化进程，充分发挥城镇化对农村居民消费的促进作用。

Regional Difference of the Impact of Urbanization on Rural Consumption and Its Threshold Effect

The promotion of urbanization in China is proposed to expand rural consumption demand as well as be an important breakthrough to increase domestic demand. This article empirically analyzes effects of urbanization, population structure, consumption structure upgrading on the rural consumption by using the provincial panel data of China over the period 2002?2012. The findings show that urbanization process is positively related to rural consumption with regional difference that there is greater impact of urbanization on rural consumption in the East than that in the West. Another finding is that there is significant single threshold effect of urbanization on rural consumption and the threshold estimation is 0.589. In the regions with high level of urbanization(>0.589) , there is greater impact of urbanization on rural consumption, but majority of provinces in China haven ’ t reached the threshold value. This paper proposes that it is necessary to further accelerate the urbanization process in China especially in undeveloped regions like the central and western regions and to give full play of the urbanization to rural consumption.