“一带一路”倡议下中国石油进口贸易效率及潜力研究

当前"逆全球化"思潮涌动,如何在"一带一路"倡议下有效提高石油进口贸易效率及潜力是新时期保障中国能源和经济安全的重要议题。文章利用1998-2016年中国对42个主要石油进口来源国家和地区的跨国面板数据,构建异质性随机前沿模型,有效识别中国石油进口贸易的非效率因素,并测算中国石油进口贸易效率及潜力。研究结果表明：中国石油进口贸易存在一定的效率损失,且中国与不同国家和区域之间的贸易效率呈现差异化特征,其中中国与沙特阿拉伯和蒙俄哈区域的贸易效率最高;石油进口来源地的政府治理和区域性组织OPEC有助于减少中国石油进口贸易效率损失,而区域政策安排如"一带一路"倡议和WTO则会降低贸易效率损失的不确定性。

A study on the efficiency and potential of China's petroleum import under the Belt and Road Initiative

At present, when the thought of "reverse globalization" surges, how to improve the efficiency and potential of petroleum import under the Belt and Road Initiative is the key to ensure the energy and economic security of China in the new period. Based on the panel data of China and 42 major petroleum countries and areas during the period from 1998 to 2016, this paper constructs the stochastic frontier model of heterogeneity, which can effectively identify the inefficient factors of China''s petroleum import and measure the efficiency and potential of China''s petroleum import. The results show that there is a certain efficiency loss in China''s petroleum import, and the trade efficiency between China and different countries and regions suggests different characteristics, especially the trade efficiency between China and Saudi Arabia, and the efficiency between China and Mongolia, Russia and Kazakhstan. The governance of the source countries of petroleum imports and the regional organization, OPEC, will help to reduce the loss of China''s petroleum import efficiency, while the regional policy arrangements, such as the Belt and Road Initiative and the WTO, will reduce the uncertainty of the loss of trade efficiency.