基于组合预测模型的煤炭能源消费总量预测

文章以2000—2016年的煤炭能源消费总量为原始数据,分析改进灰色预测模型,同时引入逻辑斯蒂预测模型,以组合模型与原始数据的残差平方和最小为目标函数确定组合模型权重系数,建立组合预测模型,通过验证3者的预测结果,得出组合模型比单一预测模型预测效果更好,适用性更强,对于煤炭能源消费总量的预测具有较好的指导意义与可行性。

Forecast of Total Coal Energy Consumption Based on Combination Forecasting Model

This paper takes the total coal energy consumption from 2000 to 2016 as the original data, analyzes the improved grey prediction model, and introduces the logistic prediction model. The weight coefficient of the combined model is determined by the minimum sum of the residuals of the combined model and the original data. The combination forecasting model is established. By verifying the prediction results of the three, the combined model is better than the single forecasting model and has better applicability. It has good guiding significance and feasibility for the prediction of total coal energy consumption.