金融服务贸易与经济增长关系的实证分析

金融服务贸易是世界经济和金融发展的重要组成部分。近年来，跨境交付和商业存在模式的金融服务贸易在我国增长迅速，并在促进经济增长中发挥着重要作用。以我国1997—2011年相关时间序列数据为样本，进行平稳性检验、协整检验和格兰杰检验，分析我国金融服务贸易与经济增长之间的关系。结果表明，跨境交付和商业存在模式的金融服务贸易与经济增长之间存在长期均衡关系，对经济增长具有正相关效应；跨境交付模式的金融服务贸易是经济增长的单向格兰杰原因，促进了商业存在模式金融服务贸易的发展。

Empirical analysis on relationship between financial service trade and economic growth

Financial service trade is an important part of world economy and financial development. In recent years, cross-border supply mode and commercial presence mode of financial service trade increase quickly in China, which plays important role in promoting economic growth. Taking the time series data from 1997 to 2011 in China as a sample, stationary test, co-integration test and Granger test are applied to analyze the relationship between financial service trade and economic growth in China. The result shows that there is a long term equilibrium relationship between cross-border supply mode and commercial presence mode of financial service trade and economic growth, which has positive effect on economic growth; cross-border supply mode of financial service trade is the unidirectional Granger cause of economic growth, which promotes the development of commercial presence mode of financial service.