服务贸易自由化经济增长效应的产生路径——基于日本通信服务贸易引力模型的SVM测算

从理论和实证两个角度对服务贸易自由化经济增长效应的产生路径进行研究。在理论方面，服务贸易自由化通过人力资本积累、加速技术的传播速度和扩散速度、增加服务提供者的交易经验、提高专有服务市场垄断程度这四条路径产生经济增长效应。在实证方面，利用1985—2008年日本通信服务行业的相关数据进行实证分析。通过研究得出服务贸易自由化程度越高，人力资本吸收速度越快，技术吸收速度越快，对经济增长产生的正效应越大的结论，并据此提出相应的政策建议。

Engendering path of economic growth effect of liberalization of service trade:a SVM estimate based on gravity model of communication service trade in Japan

The engendering path of economic growth effect of liberalization of service trade is studied from theoretical and empirical aspects. In the theoretical aspect, the liberalization of service trade engenders economic growth effect through four paths, namely, the accumulation of human capital, the acceleration of technological dissemination and proliferation, the increase of trade experience of service provider, and the monopoly degree of proprietary service market. In the empirical aspect, relative data of communication service industry in Japan from 1985 to 2008 are used to conduct empirical analysis. Conclusions are drawn that the higher the liberalization degree of service trade, the higher the absoption speed of human capital, the higher the absoption speed of technology, and the higher the positive effect on economic growth. Corresponding policy suggestions are brought forward according to it.