石油贸易中“单独议价”模式的可行性分析——以中俄石油贸易为例

近年来石油价格频繁波动,直接影响到我国的能源安全。目前,中俄两国石油贸易价格的定价模式主要是"贷款换石油",即在我国所提供的250亿美元优惠性贷款采用固定利率偿还的基础上,俄方供给价格主要参考国际石油市场价格,并随国际油价的变动而变动。以"固定利率"换"变动价格",我国的不利局面显而易见:一方面,随着油价的不断攀升,作为我国贷款收益的石油供给量将无法保证;另一方面,我国在采购价格上无法摆脱"受制于人"的局面,在石油贸易价格的制定中长期缺乏话语权。因此,改变现有贸易合作机制,实现石油进口国与输出国双赢利益格局迫在眉睫。中俄石油贸易中,以贸易双方为主体、以双边贸易谈判为主要工具、以市场供需为原则、以平等互利为基础、以"投资换石油"为主要保障措施的"单独议价"模式,具有一定的可行性。"单独议价"模式实施过程中应注意以下几个问题:重视对俄投资的战略意义;保持政策的前瞻性、延续性;摆正政府在国与国经济交往中的作用。在"单独议价"模式下,以"投资换石油"为主要保障措施,既保证了我国获得"稳定"油价的战略意图,也使俄罗斯获得了可观的经济利益与国内经济结构转型所急需的资金、技术、管理等多方面支持,更重要的是能够增强我国对俄罗斯国内经济发展、运行的话语权,在国与国经济交往中变被动为主动。

Analysis of Feasibility of Individual Bargaining Mechanism in Oil Trade ---Taking Sino-Russian Oil Trade as an Example

In recent years oil prices have fluctuated frequently, impacting China＇ s energy security directly. Such influences include not only economic factors based on supply and demand fundamentals, but also political strategic game played between great powers. Therefore, in order to provide new ideas to change China＇ s unfavorable situation of ＂relying on other countries＂ in the oil trade, this paper firstly analyzes the reasons of the international oil prices＇ fluctuations, and then takes Sino-Russian oil trade as an example, to explore the feasibility of ＂bargaining individually＂ mechanism, on the basis of demonstrating the pros and cons of the current trading mechanism.