我国农村金融深化与农村经济发展的灰色关联分析[1]

以现代金融发展理论为依据建构农村金融深化指标,并与反映农村经济发展的相关指标相结合进行关联分析,发现金融深化指标与农村经济发展指标之间表现出较高的关联性,说明我国农村金融深化是农村经济发展的重要因素。具体来说,农村金融发展规模、效率对农村经济发展的贡献程度要高于农村金融发展结构对农村经济发展的贡献程度,同时,支持乡镇企业发展的资金来源游离于农村正规金融体系之外,而确保农户信贷资金需求又是农户收入增长的重要动力,这表明要进一步发挥农村金融对农村经济的推进作用必须对农村金融结构进行调整和优化,建立适合农村经济发展的农村金融体系。

Gray Correlation Analysis of China Rural Financial Deepening and Rural Economic Growth

The paper constructs the rural financial deepening target which takes the modern financial development theory as the foundation,and selects some indexs to reflect the rural economic development.The result displays that the financial deepening target and the rural economic development target have high relatedness and tells us the rural financial deepening is an important factor of the rural economic development.Specifically,from the contribution degree,we can easily find that the rural finance development scale and its efficiency must be higher than the rural finance development structure.At the same time,the sources of fund which support rural enterprise development dissociate from regular rural financial system,however,to guarantee the peasant household credit fund demand is also an important power to make the peasant household income grow.This indicates that in order to make the rural finance play a futher role in promoting rural economy,it is necessary to make the adjustment and the optimization to the rural finance structure,and establish the rural finance system to suit the rural economic development.