乡村人口变迁对我国粮食安全的影响

粮食安全是乡村振兴的重要保障,但城镇化的快速发展吸引大量农村劳动力离开农业,这势必会对我国粮食安全产生重要影响。文章从需求和供给两方面观察乡村人口变迁对我国粮食安全的影响,结果发现:第一,城镇居民和农村居民的粮食需求分别呈现波动性减小和基本稳定并伴随小幅波动的趋势。其中,口粮消费逐渐减小,消费动物性产品引致的饲料粮需求不断增加。第二,农民工的粮食需求既高于农村居民,也高于城镇居民;消费结构介于二者之间。第三,粮食播种面积变化不大。其中,稻谷基本稳定,小麦小幅度减少,玉米大幅度增加。第四,粮食产量总体上波动性上升。稻谷和小麦产量缓慢波动性增长,玉米产量持续稳定增长。

The Impact of Rural Population Changes on Food Security in China

Food security is an important guarantee for rural revitalization,but the rapid development of urbanization has attracted hundreds of millions of rural labor to leave agriculture,which is bound to have an important impact on China's food security.This paper clarifies the impact of rural population changes on China's food security from the aspects of demand and supply to provide a basis for the formulation of accurate food security policies.First of all,the fluctuation of the grain demand of urban residents decreases by years,and the grain demand of rural residents is generally stable and fluctuates slightly.Moreover,the proportion of grain ration gradually decreases and the proportion of feed grain gradually increases for both urban and rural residents.Secondly,the grain demand of migrant workers is higher than that of either rural residents or urban residents,and their food consumption structure is between those of rural residents and urban residents.Thirdly,the total sown area of grain has not changed much since 1990.Rice is generally stable,wheat slightly reduced,and corn substantially increased.Fourthly,the total grain output increased with fluctuation,the output of grain and wheat increased slowly and the corn output increased continuously.