经济政策不确定性是否降低了全球技术溢出强度:基于货物贸易与服务贸易的对比分析

本文采用20个国家及地区细分类型的货物贸易和服务贸易双边数据,对比研究不同贸易类型技术溢出对进口国全要素生产率的影响,并进一步分析出口国经济政策不确定性是否会降低技术溢出的作用强度。结果显示:一方面,货物及服务进口贸易引致的技术溢出显著促进了母国相对全要素生产率的提升,服务进口贸易技术溢出作用强度为0.0432,比货物进口贸易高77.8%,且两者作用强度经检验存在显著差异,这意味着服务贸易已成为全球技术溢出更为重要的载体;另一方面,加入经济政策不确定性指数后发现,各类贸易溢出仍能显著促进进口国相对全要素生产率的提升,但是经济政策不确定性显著降低了技术溢出作用的强度,服务进口的贸易技术溢出作用强度所受影响比货物进口高95.5%。本文的研究结果表明,适当对进口贸易结构进行纠偏,挑选经济政策不确定性较低的出口伙伴国是强化我国进口技术溢出吸收的关键。

Whether Economic Policy Uncertainty Reduces Global Technology Spillover: A Comparative Analysis Based on Trade in Goods and Services

This paper uses bilateral data on trade in goods and services in 20 countries and regions to compare the effects of technology spillovers from different imports on the TFP of importing countries, and further analyzes whether the economic policy uncertainty in exporting countries will reduce the intensity of global technology spillover. The results show that: on the one hand,technology spillovers caused by the trade in goods and services can significantly increase the relative TFP of importing country. The spillover effect intensity of service imports is 0.0432, which is 77.8% higher than that of goods imports, and there is a significant difference between the effect intensity of the two. This means that trade in services has become a more important carrier of global technology spillover. On the other hand, after considering the economic policy uncertainty, it is found that various types of spillovers can still significantly improve the relative TFP of importing countries, but will significantly reduce the intensity of technological spillovers. The impact of economic policy uncertainty on technology spillovers of service imports is 95.5% higher than that of goods imports. The study results show that properly correcting the import structure and selecting partner countries with low economic policy uncertainty is key to strengthening China’s absorption of import technology spillovers.