基于vSEIdRm模型的人口迁移以及离汉交通管控对新冠肺炎疫情发展的影响分析

不同于传统( Susceptible-Exposed-Infected-Removed)SEIR流行病传播动力学模型,本文在近期研究的Varying Coefficient Susceptible-Exposed-Infected-Diagnosed-Removed (vSEIdR)模型基础上加上人口迁徙(Migration) 模块,设计开发了vSEIdRm模型,该模型考虑了跨区域人口迁徙对疫情传播的影响,并允许流行病传播参数随时间变化。本文首先对人口迁移数据进行统计分析,建立其与各省新冠肺炎疫情发展的联系。之后,基于vSEIdRm模型估计了疫情初期各省份来自武汉的输入病例数,并定量刻画了离汉交通管控的效果。研究结果显示,离汉交通管控措施有效地减少了各省份的疫情规模。

The Effect of Population Migration and Wuhan Lockdown on the Control of COVID-19 Based on vSEIdRm Model

Different from the traditional SEIR (Susceptible-Exposed-Infected-Removed) epidemic model, based on the vSEIdR ( Varying Coefficient Susceptible-Exposed-Infected-Diagnosed-Removed) model in our previous study, in this paper we add a population migration compartment and propose the vSEIdRm model, which takes the effect of cross-regional migration on the epidemic into consideration and allows the parameters to vary with time. We first conduct statistical analysis on the population migration data and connect the migration with the progression of the COVID-19 epidemic. Further, based on the new model, we estimate the would-be imported cases to the provinces from Wuhan in the absence of Wuhan lockdown which quantifies the effect of the Wuhan lockdown. Our results show that the Wuhan lockdown effectively reduces the scale of the epidemic in other provinces.