全球价值链嵌入与国际经济周期非对称联动

剔除第三方效应测度双边价值链嵌入度,考察其与国际经济周期非对称联动间关联。研究发现:融入全球价值链使中国制造业陷入低增值率出口与中间投入高比例进口的困境,进而削弱了中国与贸易伙伴国经济扩张的联动,加强了中国与贸易伙伴国经济紧缩的联动,这在一定程度上导致国际经济周期呈扩张联动低于紧缩联动的非对称特征。该现象在金融危机前突出,危机后有所缓解但仍存在。相对而言,融入全球价值链大幅削弱了中国与经济增长较为稳健的发展中国家、非欧盟国家经济扩张的联动,又大幅加强了中国与发达国家、欧盟国家等危机多发国经济紧缩的联动,影响中国经济稳定增长。要规避全球价值链嵌入对稳增长的阻碍,中国须提升制造业出口国内增加值份额,并着力降低中间投入进口比例。本文发现了国际经济周期联动的非对称特征,并基于中国融入全球价值链的典型特征解释成因,研究结论可为制定实施稳增长政策提供决策参考。

Global Value Chain Embeddedness and Asymmetric Comovement of International Business Cycle

Eliminating third-party effect to measure the bilateral embeddedness in global value chain (GVC), this paper studies the relationship between GVC embeddedness and asymmetric comovement of international business cycle. The results show that embedding in GVC brings Chinese manufacturing industry the dilemma of low value-added rate in exports and high proportion of intermediate input in imports, which weakens the business cycle comovement between China and its trade partner in economic expansion, increases business cycle comovement between China and its trade partner in economic contraction, to a certain extent leads to the asymmetric feature that expansion comovement is lower than contraction comovement of international business cycle, and hinders steady economic growth. This phenomenon is prominent before the financial crisis and alleviated after crisis, but still exists. Comparatively, embedding in GVC has greatly weakened economic expansion comovement between China and developing countries, non-EU countries with relatively stable economic growth, and has greatly strengthened economic contraction comovement between China and crisisprone countries such as developed countries and EU countries, which poses a huge potential threat for steady economic growth. In order to avoid the impediment of GVC embeddedness to steady growth, China must increase the share of domestic value-added in manufacturing exports, and strive to reduce the proportion of intermediate input in import. This paper finds out the asymmetric comovement of international business cycle,and explains the causes based on the typical facts of China’s embeddedness in GVC. The research conclusions can provide reference for stable growth policy-making.