| 山东省农业经济增长影响因素动态分析 |
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| 引用本文： | 刘向宏. 山东省农业经济增长影响因素动态分析[J]. 青岛农业大学学报(社会科学版), 2011, 23(2): 46-50 |
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| 作者姓名： | 刘向宏 |
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| 作者单位： | 中央财经大学财政学院,北京,100081 |
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| 摘 要： | 运用1980~2009年山东省农业经济的相关数据,通过建立山东省第一产业GDP,第一产业就业人数,农作物播种总面积以及财政支农支出四变量的无约束向量自回归模型（VAR）以及向量误差修正模型（VEC）,对影响农业经济增长的因素进行了动态分析,进而探讨了山东省农业经济增长的长期趋势。结果表明,第一产业就业人数以及财政支农支出对山东省农业经济的增长有重要的影响,在此结论的基础上,提出相应的政策建议。
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| 关 键 词： | 农业经济增长 VAR（p）模型 脉冲响应函数 方差分解 |
Dynamic Analysis on Fators Affecting Agricultural Economic Growth of Shandong Province |
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| LIU Xiang-hong. Dynamic Analysis on Fators Affecting Agricultural Economic Growth of Shandong Province[J]. Journal of Laiyang Agricultural College(Social Science Edition), 2011, 23(2): 46-50 |
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| Authors: | LIU Xiang-hong |
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| Affiliation: | LIU Xiang-hong(Central University of Finance and Economics,Beijing 100081,China) |
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| Abstract: | The paper has used the related data of agricultural economy in Shandong Province from 1980 to 2009,and set up a Vector Autoregression Model and Vector Error Correction Model which include four variables:the GDP of Shandong's primary industry,the number of employed persons of Shandong's primary industry,total sown areas of Shandong's farm crops,expenditure for agriculture of Shandong's finance and made a dynamic analysis of factors affecting agricultural economic growth and further discussed the long-term tr... |
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| Keywords: | agricultural economic growth vector autoregression model impulse response function variance decomposition |
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