能源新形势下区域碳排放影响因素研究——基于江苏省数据的实证分析

在能源新形势下，基于扩展的STIRPAT模型，以江苏省1998—2017年的数据为样本，定量分析能源消费碳排放量与人口规模、人均GDP、能源消费结构、城市化水平和绿化覆盖率等因素之间的关系，并基于主成分回归对江苏省能源消费碳排放量进行预测和拟合。研究发现：人口规模、能源消费结构以及第二产业产值占比等因素均能促进碳排放量的增加，人口规模的影响最显著；绿化覆盖率、人均绿地面积和专利授权数均能抑制碳排放量的增加；经济增长与能源消费碳排放量之间不存在EKC曲线。基于分析结果，对江苏省发展低碳经济提出相关政策建议。

Factors affecting the carbon emissions of energy consumptionbased on the data of Jiangsu Province

Based on the extended STIRPAT model and the data of Jiangsu Province from 1998 to 2017, this paper quantitatively analyzes the relationship between energy consumption and population size, per capita GDP, energy consumption structure, urbanization level and green coverage. Using principal component regression analysis, it is found that factors such as population size, energy consumption structure and the proportion of output value of the secondary industry cause the increase of carbon emissions of energy consumption in Jiangsu Province, with the most significant impact from population size; while green coverage, per capita green area and patent grants suppress the increase of the carbon emissions; and that there is no EKC curve between economic growth and the carbon emissions. Based on the results, the paper provides relevant advice for the development of a low carbon economy in Jiangsu Province.