基于低碳经济转型的产业结构优化水平实证研究

原有的产业结构优化理论在低碳经济转型的目标下呈现出一定的局限性,据此调整产业结构优化的理论内涵,并从产业结构生态化、产业结构高级化和产业结构合理化3个方面重构产业结构优化评价指标体系,测度中国2001—2011年产业结构优化水平的历史演变以及2011年全国30个省市(除西藏)的产业结构优化水平。实证结果表明: (1)“十一五”前期的产业结构优化水平优于“十五”期间,2008年金融危机后产业结构优化水平不断下滑,但下滑速度趋缓;(2)产业结构优化水平从地域上呈现由东向西逐渐降低的整体特征;(3)产业结构优化水平直接影响当地的经济发展水平,但山西、四川等部分省份的产业结构优化水平与当地的经济发展水平极不匹配;(4)各省域在产业结构合理化、高级化和生态化三个方面呈现显著的差异,各地区产业结构发展极不平衡。据此,各级政府需要有效协调产业结构生态化、合理化和高级化的关系,才能最终实现低碳经济目标下的产业结构优化,并最终促进经济的可持续发展。

An Empirical Analysis on the Level of Industrial Structure Optimization based on Low-carbon Economy Transition

Based on the goal of low-carbon economy transition, new implications of industrial structure optimization are put forward to make up original theory's limitation, in order to realize the benefit of the economic and biologic. According to the new implications, a new assessment indicator system is set up, which contains indexes of industrial structure rationality, industrial structure upgrading and industrial structure ecologicalization. Then based on the date of China's 30 provinces from 2001—2011, and by choosing the PCA model, the level of China's industrial structure optimization from 2001—2011 and the level of different provinces in 2011 are estimated. The result shows: (1)The earlier years of “11th Five-Year” had a better level of industrial structure optimization than the“10th Five-Year”. Because of the financial crisis, the level declines from the year of 2008, the speed of decline was slowing down.(2)From the perspective of region, the level of industrial structure optimization gradually declined from east to west.(3)the level of industrial structure optimization would directly influence the level of economic development, but some provinces, like Shanxi、Sichuan showed unbalance between industrial structure optimization and economic development.(4)Industrial structure rationality, upgrading and ecologicalization presented significant differences in different provinces. Based on the above view, governments at all levels should coordinate industrial structure rationality, upgrading and ecologicalization effectively to ultimately improve industrial structure optimization and sustainable economic development.