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Evaluation of multilevel decision trees
Authors:Erwann Rogard  Andrew Gelman  Hao Lu
Affiliation:1. Department of Statistics, Columbia University, New York, NY 10027, USA;2. Department of Political Science, Columbia University, New York, NY 10027, USA;3. Thales Corporation, New York, NY, USA
Abstract:The evaluation of decision trees under uncertainty is difficult because of the required nested operations of maximizing and averaging. Pure maximizing (for deterministic decision trees) or pure averaging (for probability trees) are both relatively simple because the maximum of a maximum is a maximum, and the average of an average is an average. But when the two operators are mixed, no simplification is possible, and one must evaluate the maximization and averaging operations in a nested fashion, following the structure of the tree. Nested evaluation requires large sample sizes (for data collection) or long computation times (for simulations).
Keywords:62C10
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