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Origin dependence, secondary migration, and the indirect estimation of migration flows from population stocks
Authors:Andrei Rogers  James Raymer
Affiliation:(1) University of Southampton, UK;(2) Population Program, Institute of Behavioral Science, University of Colorado, 80309-0484 Boulder, Colorado, USA
Abstract:
US census data from 1940 to 2000 are used in this paper to illustrate the importance of origin dependence on migration streams and to examine the effects of such dependence on patterns of interregional migration. These findings are then used to make possible the indirect estimation of migration flows. A method is introduced that uses historical regularities found in the ratios of secondary to primary migration and two consecutive birthplace-specific counts of multiregional population stocks. The results demonstrate how patterns of primary and secondary migration act to shape population redistribution processes.
Keywords:migration trends  demographic analysis  internal migration  estimates  return migration  origin dependence  spatial redistribution  indirect estimation of migration
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