重庆制造业能源消费碳排放因素实证研究

分析了重庆市1999—2012年制造业碳排放量的变化,比较了制造业各行业的碳排放量;并基于LMDI方法建立了重庆市制造业以及29个细分行业能源消费碳排放因素分解模型。研究发现：1999—2012年,重庆制造业的碳排放总量不断增长,在29个分行业中,化学原料及制品制造业、非金属矿物制造业等六大行业的碳排放量占制造业总排放量的四分之三以上;在影响因素中,产业规模的扩大是促进制造业碳排放增长的最主要因素,尤其对非金属矿物制造品业、化学原料及制品制造业等六大行业来说,产业规模促进碳排放的作用较明显;非金属矿物制造品业、化学原料及制品制造业等五大行业的能源强度对降低碳排放量效果显著;而行业结构以及能源结构对碳排放量的影响效果不是很明显。

Empirical Research on Impact Factors of Manufacturing Carbon Emissions in Chongqing

The changes of the carbon emissions of the manufacturing sector and compares the carbon emissions of each industry in manufacturing sector during 1999—2012 in Chongqing were analyzed.The decomposition model of carbon emissions of Chongqing＇s manufacturing sector and 29 manufacturing sub-sectors was built with LMDI method. Results show that the carbon emissions of the manufacturing sector is growing during 1999—2012 and the carbon emissions of raw chemical materials and chemical products、nonmetal mineral products and other four sub-sectors is three-quarters of the manufacturing sector＇s in 29 sub-sectors. The enlarge of industrial scale is the main pull factor for the in-crease of carbon emissions of the manufacturing sector in Chongqing,especially nonmetal mineral products,raw chemical materials and chemical products and so on. Energy intensity of nonmetal mineral products,raw chemical materials and chemical products and other three industries have remarkable effect in reducing the carbon emissions,but the impact on carbon emissions of industry structure and energy structure is not very obvious.