"Little" and "Big" Pictures in Our Heads: Race, Local Context, and Innumeracy About Racial Groups in the United States

Americans do not know what percentage of the nation's residentsare whites, blacks, Hispanics, Asians, and American Indians.Using the 2000 General Social Survey, I find that respondentsof all races underestimate the percentages of whites and overestimatethe percentages of racial/ethnic minority groups and multiracialAmericans in the United States; however, they perceive theirlocal communities quite differently. As a first step towardunderstanding this discrepancy, I test whether individuals’local surroundings serve as a source of information for theirpictures of the United States. I examine the relationship between"objective" data and respondents’ subjective perceptionsof where they live, and compare their respective effects onAmericans’ perceptions of the nation. Multivariate multilevelanalyses show that respondents’ perceptions of differentracial group sizes in their communities are the strongest predictorsof innumeracy at the national level, while "objective" racialcontext measured at the local level has less of an effect. Thesefindings have important implications for research on racialcontext, which assumes that census numbers for respondents’locales are good proxies for their perceptions of the size ofracial/ethnic groups in their communities. Furthermore, thesefindings suggest that scholars need to start thinking aboutwhy whites and non-whites have similar "big pictures" of thenation, why their "little pictures" vary a great deal, and whythe motivations for over- and underestimation may differ byracial/ethnic group.