多中心空间发展模式与雾霾污染——基于中国城市数据的经验研究

随着中国城市化水平的快速提升,以城市网络为依托的多中心经济发展新模式日益凸显.为此,文章结合城市经济和环境经济理论,通过计算城市规模分布的位序指数以及变换的首位度指数来测度各省份的多中心空间结构,并运用工具变量估计探讨了区域多中心发展模式对中国城市雾霾污染的动态影响和作用机制.研究发现,多中心空间结构对中国城市雾霾污染的影响呈现显著的倒U型特征,在区分城市规模和冬季供暖情况之后,此结论依然稳健.同时,测算结果显示,目前我国仅有少数省份处于雾霾污染随着多中心水平的提升而下降的阶段,多数省份的雾霾污染则随着区域内多中心水平的提高而加剧.最后,中介效应分析表明,市场一体化和要素流动是多中心空间发展模式影响城市雾霾污染的重要途径,且前二者与多中心空间结构能够对降低雾霾污染产生显著的正向协同作用.文章的研究结论为从雾霾治理视角思考中国未来区域空间发展模式提供了一定的经验证据和政策启示.

Polycentric spatial structure and haze pollution: An empirical study based on Chinese urban data

With the rapid improvement of China''s urbanization, the new patterns of economic development based on urban network and dominated by industrial agglomeration is increasingly prominent. To this end, combining the theory of urban and environmental economics, this paper measures the polycentric spatial structure of each province by calculating the order index of city size distribution and the adjusted primacy index, and discusses the dynamic influence and mechanism of regional polycentric development mode on urban haze pollution in China by using instrumental variable estimation. The results show that the effect of polycentric space structure on urban haze pollution in China presents a significant inverted U-shaped feature, which is still stable after distinguishing city size and winter heating conditions. Meanwhile, the calculation results show that only a few provinces are in the stage where haze pollution decreases with the improvement of polycentric structure, but the haze pollution in most provinces aggravate with the increase of polycentric level. Finally, the mediating effect analysis shows that market integration and the flow of factors are important ways to improve China''s haze pollution through polycentric spatial development model. Meanwhile, market integration, factor flow and polycentric spatial structure could have a significant positive synergistic effect on reducing haze pollution. The findings of this paper provide some empirical evidence and policy inspiration to consider China''s future regional spatial development patterns from the perspective of haze control.