Projecting Long-Term Care Expenditure in Four European Union Member States: The Influence of Demographic Scenarios |
| |
| Authors: | Joan Costa-Font Raphael Wittenberg Concepció Patxot Adelina Comas-Herrera Cristiano Gori Alessandra di Maio Linda Pickard Alessandro Pozzi Heinz Rothgang |
| |
| Affiliation: | (1) Research Centre on the Economics of Social Policy (CAEPS), Universitat the Barcelona, Barcelona, Catalonia, Spain;(2) LSE Health and Social Care, London School of Economics, Houghton Street, London, WC2A 2AE, UK;(3) PSSRU, LSE Health and Social Care, London School of Economics, London, UK;(4) Istituto per la Ricerca Sociale, Bologna, Italy;(5) Centre for Social Policy Research, Bremen University, Bremen, Germany |
| |
| Abstract: | ![]()
This study examines the sensitivity of future long-term care demand and expenditure estimates to official demographic projections in four selected European countries: Germany, Spain, Italy and the United Kingdom. It uses standardised methodology in the form of a macro-simulation exercise and finds evidence for significant differences in assumptions about demographic change and its effect on the demand for long-term care, and on relative and absolute long-term care expenditure. It concludes that mortality-rate assumptions can have a considerable influence on welfare policy planning. Relative dispersion between country-specific and Eurostat official estimates was found to be higher for the United Kingdom and Germany than for Italy and Spain, suggesting that demographic projections had a greater influence in those countries. |
| |
| Keywords: | Population projections Long-term care Life Expectancy and mortality |
| 本文献已被 SpringerLink 等数据库收录！ |
|
