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Robust estimation of AR coefficients under simultaneously influencing outliers and missing values
Authors:Yuriy S Kharin  Valeriy A Voloshko
Institution:Department of Mathematical Modeling and Data Analysis, Belarusian State University, 4 Independence Avenue, Minsk 220030, Belarus
Abstract:A family of robust estimators for coefficients of Gaussian AR(p) time series under simultaneously influencing distortions of two types: outliers and missing values, is proposed. The estimators are based on special properties of the Cauchy probability distribution; consistency and the asymptotic normality of these estimators are proven. An approximate solution of the problem of minimization of the asymptotic variance within the proposed family of estimators is found. Performance of the proposed estimators is illustrated for simulated time series and for real data sets.
Keywords:Outlier  Missing value  Robust estimator  Time series  Autoregression  Cauchy distribution
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