北京市道路客运交通碳排放研究及其情景分析

对北京市道路客运交通碳排放进行测算，发现2005-2010年间北京市客运交通碳排放增长迅速，而2011年相对于2010年略有下降。出行比例的下降以及公共交通出行比例的上升则对北京市道路客运交通碳排放的增加具有抑制作用。当日均出行量为4 050万人次时，交通出行方式结构的改善可以为2015年北京市客运交通节省302.46万吨碳排放；而当日均出行量为4 425万人次时，则可以节省330.47万吨碳排放。

The Study of Carbon Emissions of Road Passenger Transport in Beijing and Its Scenario Analysis

This paper calculates the carbon emissions of road passenger transport in Beijing, and finds out that the carbon emissions of road passenger transport in Beijing grows rapidly from 2005 to 2010, and slightly declines in 2011 compared with 2010 baseline. The increase of daily trips is the main reason for the increase of carbon emissions of road passenger transport in Beijing in the past and future. The decrease in the proportion of both motor vehicles and private cars and the increase in the proportion of public transportation curb the increase of road passenger transport in Beijing. When the daily trips is 40.5 million people, the improvement of the traffic modes'structure will help save 3.024 6 million tons carbon emissions of road passenger transport in Beijing in 2015; And when the daily trips is 44.25 million people, the improvement of the traffic modes' structure will help save 3.304 7 million tons carbon emissions.