我国对外直接投资与出口贸易关系的实证研究

随着经济全球化进程的深入,对外直接投资和国际贸易之间的相互影响作用将越来越明显地体现出来,本文分析了对外直接投资影响出口贸易的传导机制,定性研究了我国海外投资与出口贸易的替代互补性。在此基础上通过协整检验,定量的研究了他们之间的关系。结果表明现阶段我国对外直接投资与出口之间不存在长期动态的稳定关系,最后对其原因进行了进一步的解释。

An Empirical Analysis on the Relation between Our Country's Direct in Estment in Foreign Countries and Export Trade

With the development of economic globalization process,the interaction between a country's export and it 's direct investment in foreign countries will become more and more obvious.In this article,the conduction mecha- nism how export trade affects China direct investment in other countries is analyzed,and the substitution and com- pensation relation between them is studied qualitatively.On the basis of cointegrated test,the relation between them is studied quantificationally.The conclusion is also drawn that long-term stability relation between them has not been discovered.At last,the reasons that affect the research result are studied deeply.