| 高等教育人才供求总量的预测研究 |
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| 引用本文： | 楼英伟,吴南海.高等教育人才供求总量的预测研究[J].绍兴文理学院学报,2004,24(9):107-111. |
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| 作者姓名： | 楼英伟 吴南海 |
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| 作者单位： | 1. 绍兴文理学院,教育学,浙江,绍兴,312000
2. 台州市委办,浙江,临海,318000 |
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| 摘 要： | 规划高等教育人才发展需要考虑到人才需求水平与人才供给能力两个方面 ,本文以浙江省为分析对象 ,选用非线性模型法预测了人才总需求 ,采用时间序列分析法 (自回归模型 )预测了其人才总供给 .在此基础上揭示高等教育人才供给与需求存在的矛盾 ,并实证性地分析了至 2 0 2 0年高等教育发展模式的选择 .最后 ,提出了几个的政策建议 .
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| 关 键 词： | 高等教育 人才供给与需求 预测模型 发展模式 隐性需求 |
| 文章编号： | 1008-293X(2004)09-0107-05 |
| 修稿时间： | 2004年5月24日 |
A Forecast Study on Talent Supply-Demand for Higher Education |
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| Lou Yingwei,Wu Nanhai.A Forecast Study on Talent Supply-Demand for Higher Education[J].Journal of Shaoxing College of Arts and Sciences,2004,24(9):107-111. |
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| Authors: | Lou Yingwei Wu Nanhai |
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| Abstract: | To plan the requirement of higher educational talents, two aspects should be taken into account: talent demand level and talent supply capability. Taking Zhejiang province as a studying object, we forecast gross talent demand by non-linear model, and forecast gross talent supply by time-series analysis (autoregressive model). On this basis, we probe the inconsistency between talent demand and talent supply, and positively analyze the selection of development model in higher education till 2020. Finally, some advice for policy-making is made. |
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| Keywords: | higher education talent supply and demand forecast model development model potential demand |
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