限售股解禁对股票需求的影响分析

限售股解禁会增加流通市场的股票供给,以供求理论为基础,即使在股票需求不变的状态下也会引起供求失衡,导致股价下跌;如果市场对限售股解禁有预期效应,会进一步减少股票的需求。为探索增量供给对股票需求是否产生影响,文章通过Granger因果检验对限售股解禁总量与各股票需求量化指标进行实证研究,得出了限售股解禁总量与各需求量化指标的因果关系,并提出了相关政策建议。

Analysis of Impact on Lifting the Ban on the Sale of Restricted Stock to Demand for Shares

Lifting the ban on the sale of restricted stock will increase the flow of the stock market. On the basis of supply and demand theory, even if the demand for shares is the same, it will lead to imbalance between supply and demand, and to drop of its share prices; If lifting the ban on the sale of restricted stock is expected by the market, it will further reduce the demand for shares. To explore whether the incremental supply have the impact on the needs of shares or not, the paper adopts empirical research on the gross of lifting the ban on the sale of restricted stock and indexes for demand by the Granger causality test, and has come to causality between them; relevant policy and suggestions has been put forward.