中国电力工业环境学习曲线与节能减排潜力分析

电力行业在生产过程中,消耗大量的资源且排放大量的污染物,在资源环境保护方面承担着非常重要的责任。利用1991—2005年的时间序列数据,选取万元产值能耗、水耗、SO2排放、COD排放等九个主要指标,建立电力工业能耗和大气污染、水耗和水环境污染随着人均GDP变化的环境学习曲线,并根据这些曲线分析了不同时段,我国电力工业的环境负荷和节能减排潜力。结果发现:我国电力工业资源环境九项指标均随人均GDP的增长呈幂指数衰减,不同时段电力工业万元产值环境负荷逐渐下降,同时节能减排的潜力也逐年下降,这是由环保意识增强和经济技术发展而产生的必然结果。

Analysis of the Environment Learning Curve and the Potentials of Saving Energy and Reducing Emission in Chinese Electric Power Industry

In the production process,electric power industry consumes massive resources and also discharges more pollutants,and therefore it should undertake an important responsibility in the resources and environmental protection.This paper uses scheduling statistical data from 1991 to 2005,and takes nine main indexes which include the energy consumption,water consumption,SO2 discharge and COD discharge,and then establishes environment learning curves of energy consumption and air pollution,water consumption and pollution.According to these models,it analyses environmental burden and the potentials of saving energy resources and reducing pollution in different period.The result shows that with the economic development,each index falls by power exponential model,which follows "environmental learning curve".The environmental burden gradually descents with the potentials of saving energy resources and reducing pollution,because of the enhancement of people's environmental protection consciousness and the development of technology.