政府行为对农民参保选择影响的实证分析——基于新农保试点的调查

在对新农保试点调查的基础上,实证分析新农保试点中的农民参保选择和政府行为的关系。利用二元lo-gistic回归模型分析结果发现,反映政府行为中制度设计层面的制度满意度与养老金水平、反映财政支持情况的各级政府补贴和反映政策执行情况的政策了解度等变量,对参保选择都具有不同程度的显著性影响关系,个体因素中的年龄、性别对于参保缴费选择也具有显著性影响。此结果具有重要的政策启示意义,需要进一步完善筹资机制、加强组织实施工作和提升农民的参保意识,以推进新农保试点顺利扩面。

A Qualitative Analysis of the Effects of the Government Behavior on Farmers’ Participation in the New Rural Pension System:Based on a Survey of Pilot Projects

Based on a survey of the pilot projects for the New Rural Pension System,this paper studies empirically the relationship between government behavior and farmers’ participation in the scheme.Using a logistic regression model,this study shows that proxies of government behavior such as satisfaction with the design of the system,pension fund,subsidies from all levels of governments as well as knowledge of the system(a proxy of policy enforcement) all bear statistically significant impact on the participation rate.In addition,age,gender and choice of personal contribution are significant factors.The results have important policy implications.In order to expand the trials for the New Rural Pension System,it is necessary to further improve the financing system,strengthen the organization and administration of the program,and raise farmers’ awareness to participate in the program.