我国粮食生产函数与影响因素分析

利用1978-2005年的相关数据建立粮食生产函数,并以此为基础来探讨影响我国粮食产量的主要因素。研究得出:农业劳动力作为粮食核心要素的地位不会改变;播种面积是影响粮食产量的关键要素;农用化肥仍然是粮食生产物质投入最重要的要素;灌溉面积和农业机械对粮食生产的影响不明显;农村用电量并未能提高粮食产量,相反可能存在一定的替代效用;自然灾害仍然是粮食减产的主要因素;家庭年产承包责任制并非仅仅是"一次性"的效应,农业劳动力的输出和转移也未产生明显的负效应。

Function on Grain Production of Our Country and Influence Factors

This paper establishes functions on grain production by using related data from 1978 to 2005,and probes into main factors on grain products of our country.The results are as follows: agricultural labor is a kind of core factors on grain products in the long term;sown area is a essential factor on grain products and chemical fertilizer is the most important factor of material input on grain production still;irrigated area and agricultural machinery influence grain production in an unremarkable way;electricity consumed in rural area doesn't improve grain products but perhaps have a kind of substitutive effect;natural disaster is still a main factor resulting the decrease of grain products;household contract responsibility system with remuneration linked to output doesn't have a one-time effect;and also,transferring of agricultural labor doesn't play distinctly a negative role.