金融危机对我国汽车出口贸易的影响

构建反映金融危机程度的综合指标，运用基于VAR模型的脉冲响应函数和方差分解法，考察2008年1月至2009年5月金融危机对我国汽车出口的动态影响特征。分析结果表明，我国汽车出口受到金融危机冲击之后不是立即减少，而是先在短期内有所上升，然后有所波动并呈下降趋势，该趋势不是一个平稳的过程；金融危机是预测汽车出口贸易方差的关键因素，但不是唯一因素，还有其他重要因素影响着汽车出口贸易。

Influence of financial crisis on car export of China

A synthetical indicator reflecting the degree of financial crisis is established, and the impulse response function and variance decomposition method based on VAR model are applied to investigate the dynamic influence characteristics of financial crisis on car export of China from January 2008 to May 2009. The results show that the car export of China rises in a short period rather than declines immediately after the impact of financial crisis, and then it fluctuates with a declining trend, which is an unstable course; Financial crisis is a key but not exclusive factor that forecasts the variance of car export trade, and there are still other important factors influencing car export trade.